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It is the situation on the battlefield that will determine negotiating positions - Ihor Petrenko

A new successful offensive operation by the Armed Forces of Ukraine may lead many in Putin's entourage to increasingly question if it's worth continuing this suicidal invasion, because this way the Russian Federation may find itself on the verge of collapse. Ihor Petrenko, a co-founder of United Ukraine, shared his thoughts with

"So far, there are no prospects for the negotiation process. Now, the Russian Federation is interested in taking a tactical pause. That is why Russia is speaking about negotiations. Putin does not want peace. It's just that he has a rather difficult situation in terms of the military. At the same time, he is preparing reserves and is considering plans for a repeated attack on Kyiv. Zelensky perfectly understands these Kremlin games. That is why he puts forward his proposals. Emphasizing that the Russian Federation is not in a position to dictate its terms."

It's worth recalling that Volodymyr Zelensky made it clear that Russia must at least stop hostilities and withdraw its troops from all territories of Ukraine to start negotiations.

"But the Russian Federation is not ready for this yet. Hence, the situation on the battlefield will determine negotiating positions," Ihor Petrenko stated. "Most likely, Ukraine will strive to continue the counteroffensive. The equipment and training of our troops are now better than that of the enemy. It would be helpful to reach more advantageous positions, for example, in the Zaporizhzhia direction. Perhaps with the liberation of Melitopol. It is important to cut the land corridor to Crimea, which Russia managed to break through during a large-scale invasion. The Kremlin can now attempt freezing the war, selling a conditional victory to Russian society, saying, "there is a land corridor to Crimea, water supply is back, and the Bandera regime suffered heavy losses." Russian citizens would take it. And without a land corridor to Crimea or the capture of the entire Donbas, "selling" such a "victory" would be difficult."

Therefore, the expert predicts, the winter will be intense. Closer to spring, however, clearer prospects for the negotiation process will emerge.

"So far, everything looks like it is Ukraine that will strengthen its positions. Zelensky's successful visit to the United States took place this week. We will receive important military assistance, including the Patriot air defense systems. So far, it is about one battery. But this is only the beginning. Congress supported the budget for the new year, where 45 billion dollars is allocated to Ukraine and other US allies. We have systematic support from the civilized countries of the world. And we are not only talking about the so-called collective West (USA, Canada, Great Britain, EU) but also about Japan, Australia, and New Zealand. This is a huge power. And what support does Russia have? Medvedev's recent visit to China and statements about strengthening relations mean nothing. China will not directly supply Russia with military technology, military equipment, or dual-purpose goods. China needs Russia exclusively to pump out cheap resources. Among the Kremlin's clear allies are only Belarus, under his control, as well as Iran and North Korea, which are under sanctions. But the drones that Iran supplied to the Russian Federation, albeit attacking critical infrastructure facilities, could not change anything on the front line," Ihor Petrenko emphasized.

As Mr. Petrenko summarized, the hostilities will be active in the winter, but for the Russians, the situation will take a turn for the worst. A new successful offensive operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine may lead many in Putin's entourage to increasingly question if it's worth continuing this suicidal invasion. After all, the Russian Federation may end up on the verge of collapse.

"So far, the Russian leadership has not given up on influencing Ukraine militarily," the expert noted. "However, for Russia, the window of opportunity is narrowing daily."


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