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  • Writer's pictureКущ Олексій

Is a peace plan for Ukraine possible or not as a project of the Global South - Oleksiy Kushch


Currently, there are only two options in our internal discourse.


The first is the total defeat of Russia.


Military victory, return to the 1991 borders, reparations, disintegration of Russia.


The second option is the same, but without the last point.


In this sub-option, the risk of a new war remains: Russian society is embracing resentment, like German society in the 1920s.


We all understand perfectly well what resentment gives rise to in the historical context.


The security issue in this context can be resolved by security guarantees from our allies (at the transitional stage) and then by NATO membership (Article 5, nuclear umbrella).


I am not analyzing the likelihood of this scenario, I am just stating it here.


A part of society is convinced that it is possible to "freeze" the conflict by signing a ceasefire agreement or without written agreements - in fact.


All of these options have one weakness: the threat of a new war and the unresolved key question of whether the West will be ready to fight directly for Ukraine with Russia in the future.


But there is a third option that we have not yet considered.


The countries of the Global South, which are now actively shaping their geopolitical subjectivity and formulating a proactive international policy, can become one of the guarantors of peace.


In recent years, the Global South has been successfully overcoming the deficit of subjectivity and getting rid of the mental traumas of the colonial past, overcoming neocolonial traps as well.


The countries of the Global South are interested in ending the war because they suffer from its consequences:


rising food prices, global inflation, restrictions on the supply of agricultural raw materials from Ukraine, and a high level of uncertainty in the global fuel market due to sanctions against Russian oil and gas.


A coalition of countries from the Global South, as guarantors of peace, could sign an agreement with Russia to end hostilities, since neither Ukraine nor the West will sign such an agreement.


This would be followed by a UN Security Council resolution and the deployment of a UN peacekeeping mission to the conflict zone.


The Coalition of the Global South (Wallerstein's peace system) would thus have made its geopolitical "initiation."


Who could form the UN Blue Helmets?


From the point of view of the country that Russia looks up to the most, it is China.


But China's "interested neutrality" makes this option impossible - it has given too many geopolitical "advances" to the Russians.


Therefore, India, which has the necessary technical resources, could become the key core of the UN peacekeeping force.


Such a force could also include:


Brazil - as the largest country in South America.

Mexico - as the largest country in Spanish-speaking Latin America.

South Africa as the most developed country in Africa.

Egypt - as a key country in North Africa.

Saudi Arabia - as the central country of the Arab global cluster.

Indonesia - as one of the key countries in the Pacific region.


This coalition of the Global South could successfully exert geopolitical pressure on Russia to control the peace process.


In fact, for the Global South, and especially for India, this could be the first collective geopolitical project of the 21st century.


Of course, this is only a hypothetical version, one of the constructs of the peace process.


But such options are worth discussing.

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