Recently, US President Joe Biden authorised the use of US long-range weapons to strike the territory of the rashist federation. The easing of restrictions on the use of the ATACMS missile system to hit targets in russia is a significant turnaround in US policy and one of the most important steps towards peace. That is why most foreign publications are analysing how this step will bring Ukraine closer to victory and what are the likely scenarios for achieving peace.
In an editorial from The Washington Post, the authors note that there is currently a surge in hostilities between Ukraine and russia, which is caused by US President-elect Donald Trump's promise to end the conflict as soon as he takes office. That is why the kremlin is now seeking to seize as much additional lands as possible before the inauguration, and Ukraine is heroically resisting it.
However, the authors emphasise that a ceasefire that ratifies the actual division of Ukraine will further encourage putin to commit new acts of aggression and send a powerful signal to dictators around the world.
If a piece of Ukraine's eastern territory remains under russian occupation, it will mean a defeat for both Ukraine and the West. During the presidential campaign, Mr Trump spoke extensively about the Biden administration's hasty and poorly planned withdrawal from Afghanistan, which he said showed the world American weakness. Abandoning Ukraine after almost three years of a united American and European front would send the same signal. And if this happens as a result of the agreements reached by Mr Trump, he will bear all the responsibility.
In another article from The Economist, the author also suggests that if putin concludes that he has a chance to undermine NATO, his behaviour will become even more aggressive. In other words, if Europe wants peace, it must prepare for war. Europe needs larger armed forces. It needs to be equipped with a more powerful defence industry. Instead, it suffers from a constant shortage of weapons.
The task of making Europe safe is enormous and will take years. We need to start working now. Leaders need to tell their people clearly about the dangers that lie ahead, starting with the fact that russia wants to destroy not only Ukraine, but also the EU and NATO.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is busy working on its own ballistic missiles to strike deep into enemy territory, according to The Wall Street Journal, and plans to announce a huge missile programme by the end of the year. Ukraine keeps most details of its programme secret. However, officials say Ukraine's missile programme lacks capacity and funding.
Undoubtedly, the Ukrainian leadership is taking the right steps to ensure its own security. After all, while recognising the need for a peaceful settlement, it must also be understood that any settlement must be built on a solid foundation, both in terms of military capabilities and strategic partnerships. Ukraine's path to greater self-sufficiency and its efforts to build strong alliances will play a crucial role in shaping the outcome of the war against our country. It is also important that most Western partners understand that peace in Europe can only be maintained through effective military deterrence, especially against russian aggression.
What might a possible deal look like? Ukraine will have to accept the loss of some of its territory. The 7% that Russia seized in its first invasion in 2014 (the Crimea and eastern Donbas) is surely unrecoverable. Any settlement will probably also involve Russia holding on to some or most of the additional 11% that it now controls since the 2022 invasion. In return, Ukraine must have solid security guarantees, the ideal one being full membership of NATO. That would probably constitute an acceptable solution in Kyiv, painful though it will be for Ukraine to swallow.
The security of Europe is entering a perilous and enduring decline. In 2025 Russia will have the upper hand in Ukraine. America, looking towards Asia under President Donald Trump, will become viciously transactional. Not since the 1930s have European leaders so urgently needed to summon the courage to face reality and the statesmanship to take action. Unfortunately, Europe’s leaders are weak and distracted by their problems at home. Instead of standing up they are more likely to bury their heads deeper in the sand.
The danger begins in Ukraine. It comes not only from Russia’s slow, relentless advance in the east—though, as the Ukrainian army is hollowed out, that looks ever more likely to cause the front to collapse. The real problem is that Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, knows the West has been unwilling to give Ukraine enough money or weapons to defend itself.
President Joe Biden has authorized Ukraine to use a powerful American long-range weapon for limited strikes inside Russia in response to North Korea’s deployment of thousands of troops to aid Moscow’s war effort, according to two senior U.S. officials.
The easing of restrictions on allowing Kyiv to use the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, to hit targets inside Russia is a significant reversal in U.S. policy and comes as some 10,000 elite North Korean troops have been sent to Kursk, a region of Russia along Ukraine’s northern border, to help Moscow’s forces retake territory gained by Ukraine.
Not only Mr. Putin. An abandonment of Ukraine — or a deal that leaves Ukraine untenably territorially diminished — would signal to dictators around the world that Western resolve comes with an expiration date. Imagine how Chinese President Xi Jinping would take a Western retreat from Ukraine as he contemplates taking Taiwan or the atolls and shoals in the oil-rich South China Sea. It’s not too soon to wonder — and worry — whether North Korea’s Kim Jong Un regards his army’s mission against Ukraine as preparation for a military move of his own on the Korean Peninsula.
The U.S. and its allies have permitted the use of the hard-hitting and difficult-to-intercept missiles at a critical time for Ukraine, which is struggling to hold back mounting Russian offensives along the 800-mile front line. Striking deeper in the rear will help Ukraine slow Russia’s war machine before it delivers more troops, supplies and bombs onto the front lines, where they are most dangerous.
One of the largest concentrations Ukraine could potentially target is in Russia’s southern Rostov province. There, at least four airports are within reach, although some double as civilian airports and are unlikely to be targeted. Rostov is the landing place for many troops, transported in large military aircraft, equipped, loaded onto buses and driven to Ukraine’s occupied east. A strike in the region could be devastating and scatter a key deployment ground for Russian troops.
Ukraine is busy working on its own ballistic missiles to strike deep into enemy territory. The country keeps most details of its program secret, but Ukrainian officials have indicated recently that it could be operational soon. The country tested one of its ballistic missiles in August.
“You will be hearing next year or by the end of the year that there will be a huge missile program,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said last month.
Ukraine’s missile program, though, lacks capacity and funding, officials say. Those factors could limit the program’s effectiveness, and mean Kyiv will likely remain dependent on the West for some types of weapons for years to come.
Nordic and Baltic states and Poland said on Wednesday they would in the coming months step up support for Ukraine, including to the country's defence industry, and invest in making more ammunition available.
"We are committed to strengthening our deterrence, and defence, including resilience, against conventional as well as hybrid attacks, and to expanding sanctions against Russia as well as against those who enable Russia's aggression," the leaders of Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Norway, Poland and Sweden said in a statement.
Foreign ministers from the Group of Seven democracies on Tuesday expressed their support for Ukraine and condemned what they described as Russia's "irresponsible and threatening nuclear rhetoric".
They also warned that North Korean support for Russia marked a dangerous expansion of the conflict, with serious consequences for European and Indo-Pacific security, and called on China, a long-standing ally of North Korea, to act against it.
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