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How Will the War in Israel Affect the War in Ukraine and the World? - Ihor Petrenko


It's time to realize that autocratic, dictatorial regimes are essentially terrorist regimes. Ihor Petrenko, an expert at the United Ukraine think tank, writes about this in his article for EL PAÍS. The text of the article can be found below.


The events of Saturday, October 7 in Israel came as a shock to the entire civilized world. And only a handful of autocratic dictators rubbed their hands together at the new challenge to the West, which they seek to destroy or at least relegate to the role of extras in the new world order. These events are also affecting another hot spot on the world map, Ukraine, where the terrorist country of Russia is doing the same thing as Hamas terrorists every day. This and other things are discussed further in the article.


What is happening in Israel is not just a consequence of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, but the formation of a new "axis of evil" - the Russia-Iran-China triangle (plus their satellites), which is destroying the world order. Yes, there is no confirmed information that Tehran was directly involved in the Hamas attack on Israel. Yes, China seems to have nothing to do with it. But the Chinese shadow can be traced behind all the actions of the Russians, Iranians, and even North Koreans. And Iran is definitely a sponsor of both Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah. And the presence of Russian weapons among Hamas terrorists speaks for itself.


We need to understand that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a tangle of different problems and actors (players with opposing interests). The Arab world itself is heterogeneous, with different visions of what is happening. At the moment, Israel seems to have regained control over its territories. And it seems to be planning a ground operation in the Gaza Strip. So far, Israeli aviation has been active there. At the same time, the problem of Lebanon and Hezbollah's weapons rattling around there remains relevant. As many analysts have already noted, Hamas's attack on Israel was clearly carefully prepared and supported by more powerful players. Of course, the shadow of suspicion falls on Iran, which traditionally denies everything. But it also denies supplying Russia with drones, yet the Shaheds have been attacking Ukraine for a year now.


In fact, Israel is currently in a stretch. On the one hand, the Israelis want revenge, quick and harsh, and they have the right to do so. On the other hand, excessive brutality and a ground operation will be used by Arab countries (some of them) to draw other terrorist organizations, and perhaps even proxy countries, into a war with Israel. This is a complex dilemma that requires understanding and support for Israel from the West and the entire civilized world.


Russia's reaction to the escalation in the Middle East is also indicative. It has clearly taken the side of Hamas, a terrorist organization nurtured by the USSR and later taken over by Iran. But the old ties remain. And the Kremlin somehow has both influence on Hamas and ties with it. It is no coincidence that the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry warns that Russia will try to push the crazy idea that it was Ukraine that supplied weapons to Hamas against the backdrop of the Middle East escalation. It is clear that this is not true. But when was it important for Russian propaganda?


We should look at everything that is happening globally - China is acting more with economic instruments on the world stage, preferring such expansion. To Europe, Asia, and Africa. And with the help of rogue states such as North Korea, Iran, and Russia, which are somehow dependent on Chinese aid, Beijing creates proxy conflicts and resumes old wars. And in this way, it opposes the democratic world led by the United States.


Unfortunately, the West still has an existential fear of a world war. And the new "axis of evil" represented by China, Russia, and Iran is playing on this. Autocratic regimes can mobilize quickly. They do not spare people - neither their own nor others. They do not play by the rules. Comfort remains the greatest value for the West, as war and insecurity, even in the case of Ukraine, remain unthinkable for citizens of developed democracies. They just don't know how to deal with it, but Russia, Iran, and China do. And most importantly, they know exactly how to manipulate this in the face of the West.


Obviously, the democratic world needs to become much tougher. Proving that goodness also has fists. And it is not afraid to use them. After all, it was the weak reaction of the West to everything that Russia did (first in Georgia, and since 2014 in Ukraine, eventually leading to a direct invasion) that led to the fact that Africa began to "storm" (a series of coups, again, not without a Russian trace), and now the Middle East has also flared up.


It is clear that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has its roots. But the fact that it has once again escalated right now is a consequence of the weakness of the West's response to Russian aggression, among other things. There have been no new sanctions packages for a long time. The supply of arms and ammunition to Ukraine, which was already delayed, with reservations, and in insufficient quantities, has begun to fail. And against the backdrop of the escalation in the Middle East, the provision of assistance to us may slow down even further. This, of course, plays into the hands of Russia. And Peskov has openly stated this. On the other hand, given the current discussions in the United States about funding for assistance to Ukraine, the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden is considering combining its request to Congress for military assistance for Ukraine and Israel into one request. Such a move would force some Republicans opposed to aid to Ukraine to vote for the package because they would not want to block military aid to Israel.


But this is hardly a good thing for Ukraine, given the tragedy that Israel has experienced. And Ukraine knows this well, because in fact what Hamas militants did in Israel this weekend is absolutely identical to the atrocities that Russia is committing in Ukraine, in particular, for example, in Bucha, Irpen, Borodyanka, Moshchun, etc. Therefore, Russia, Hamas, Hezbollah are all things of the same order. The only difference between them is that Russia has nuclear weapons. And the weakness of the West's reaction to Russia's actions demonstrates that if you want to be a terrorist with whom they are negotiating, you must have nuclear weapons. And where does this all lead us?


If the West does not want to face new and new threats, it should actively work to change authoritarian regimes. It should support any movements that oppose them as much as possible. Both externally and internally. This is a difficult task. And there have already been some attempts that have failed. But if this is not done, such regimes will continue to destroy the world order, which will sooner or later lead to its complete collapse with all the consequences for all of humanity. And it is quite right that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy compares Hamas to Russia. They use the same terrorist tools. And the mass executions of civilians carried out by the Russians in Ukraine (Bucha, Irpin, Gostomel are just the most famous examples) seem to have been copied by Hamas, which created a nightmare in Israel, killing people on the streets, in their homes, at festivals. The democratic world should treat Hamas and Russia accordingly. And just as Israel rejected the possibility of negotiations with Hamas after what it did, so, quite logically, Ukraine rejects negotiations with the current leadership of Russia, which is essentially a terrorist regime.


It's high time we realized that autocratic, dictatorial regimes are essentially terrorist regimes. And, as terrorist organizations themselves, they sponsor any concession as a weakness. Attempts to pacify them eventually lead to new aggressions with even more victims. Deterrence is not enough here. We need to promote fundamental changes and the collapse of such regimes in every possible way. The task, I repeat, is difficult. But postponing it only leads to the cementing of such regimes. And to new aggressions, each time more bloody.


Source: "EL PAÍS"


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